UFC 121

Cain Velasquez has proven he is the #1 contender and has what it takes to be the champ right now. Brock Lesnar is physically powerful and fast which makes up for his lack of experience. What makes Lesnar so appealing is that he improves leaps and bounds every time he steps in the cage. So it would be difficult to study his fight style and develop an effective strategy.

Lesnar’s last fight showed that he can come back from adversity and still win and that’s what true champions are made of. But that fight also showed that he’s still needs to work on his defense. Lesnar’s stand-up is stiff and very telegraphic. It’s something that Cain and his coaches will be working to capitalize on. Cain Velasquez will be giving up about 30 lbs when he steps in the cage. This can be considered an advantage or disadvantage; it depends on the type of strategy he brings against Lesnar.

Velasquez’s quest to a shot for the title has been a long time coming. Being undefeated in the UFC and KOing one of the best HW in the world made it easy for the fans and UFC brass to give Velasquez the #1 contender spot. The way the styles match up it’s difficult to call this one. Lesnar will need to avoid a kickboxing match with Cain and take this fight to the ground and take control of top position. Lesnar is a mountain of a man and if he can put Cain on his back every second that goes by will suck the energy out of Mexican heavyweight. For Velasquez, he needs to keep the fight standing and put the pressure on the Champ. Lesnar has good cardio for a large heavyweight and Velasquez will need to push it to it’s limits. His best bet will be taking the fight deep into the later rounds or draw Lesnar in a boxing match where Cain where has the advantage and score points with the judges and maybe score a knockdown and hoprfully capitalize on it. As for Cain KOing Lesnar it will be very unlikely. In the end I see Lesnar getting the win. Lesnar is bigger and stronger and his superior wrestling will nullify Velasquez’s better cardio and better boxing.

My Picks:

Brock Lesnar beats Cain Velasquez
Martin Kampmann beats Jake Shields
Diego Sanchez beats Paulo Thiago
Gilbert Yvel beats Jon Madsen
Tom Lawlor beats Patrick Cote
Tito Ortiz beats Matt Hamill
Gabriel Gonzaga beats Brendan Schaub
Chris Camozzi beats Dong Yi Yang
Ryan Jensen beats Court McGee

UFC 119

Frank Mir is on a mission. He wants the Heavyweight title again and just as important, he wants to take it from Brock Lesnar. But his road to the title has been a rocky one where he had suffered a some setbacks. Losing to Brock changed Mir in a way that affected him physically and mentally. Since then Mir has never been this fit and he has never been so determined to claw his way back to the top. And tonight, the next person standing in his way is the stoic and always dangerous Mirko Cro Cop.

In PrideFC, Cro Cop amass a career on beating opponents by vicious knockouts. Watching Cro Cop was like watch Mike Tyson demolishing grown men down to cowering little girls. It was fun and exciting to watch. Towards the end of his PrideFC career his speed and aggression waned but not before he was able to capture the Open Weight Grand Prix title. Soon after PrideFC went under UFC acquired the Croatian Sensation. Cro Cop’s fight in the UFC has been less than stellar. But with two back to back wins in the UFC the Croatian looks more poised then ever. Is he finally comfortable in the Octagon? My answer, probably not. But he can always prove me wrong if he wins impressively against Mir.

Mir has one of the best ground game in the division, but he’s been improving his standup. Wins over Kongo and Big Nog showed that he can throw punches too. Cro Cop is a K1 striker and has fought the best kickboxers on the planet. But his BJJ is “meh” at best. It’s his face-planting sprawl that keeps his opponents from trying to take him down. To win this fight Mir will need to take the fight to the ground fast and work his submissions. He’ll need to close the distance and drag him down to the floor.

For Cro Cop to win he’ll need to pull the trigger and let his hands and legs loose. He’s been too gun-shy lately to build up any kind of effective offense. With his sprawl he can keep the fight standing as long as he wants. But he’ll need to utilize his kicks to slow down Mir. Cro Cop has excellent gound and pound and if he can wear Mir down he can win the fight there. Forcing Mir to repeatedly go for takedowns is one way to gas him out. Skill for skill Mir has a little more tools in his tool bag than Cro Cop. Mir always comes back stronger and better after a loss and we have yet to see the Cro Cop of the past and we’ll probably will never see it again, which is why Mir will win this fight because the Croatian’s lack of aggression and counter-fighting style won’t work against Mir.

My Picks:

Frank Mir beats Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic
Ryan Bader beats Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Chris Lytle beats Matt Serra
Evan Dunham beats Sean Sherk
Melvin Guillard beats Jeremy Stephens
Matt Mitrione beats Joey Beltran
Thiago Tavares beats Pat Audinwood
C.B. Dollaway beats Joe Doerksen

UFC 117

This will be the first time UFC has held an event in Oakland and it has a stacked card, at least for me it is. Headlining the event will be Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva defending his belt against big mouthed trash-talking Republican Chael Sonnen.  A lot of hype is being thrown into this fight thanks to Sonnen’s commentary, but the truth is Sonnen hasn’t faced a fighter like Silva, but Silva has faced wrestlers and ground fighters and won with ease.  I’m not saying Sonnen has no chance of winning, he just needs to bring a strategy that is much different than what he’s brought against his past opponents.

When Anderson Silva fought Travis Lutter Silva was put on his back and got a slight beating only if it was for a slight moment. Against Dan Henderson in the first round, Silva was taken down and held there for the majority of the period. Both those guys have great ground game, but was unable to finish Silva. As for Sonnen, he needs to take the fight to the ground, but unlike Henderson and Lutter he needs to finish. He needs to stay busy inflicting damage and work his top position and prevent Silva from escaping. On the feet is where it gets tricky. Anderson Silva’s striking is above and beyond Sonnen’s and he’ll have to find a way to take the fight to the ground. It’s likely that Sonnen will use the cage and his clinch to work for a takedown or a catching a kick from Silva, and anyone who’s anyone knows that being in the clinch with Anderson Silva is a quick way to see stars and birdies.

But the big question is on Anderson Silva whether he’s coming into the cage like he did against Demian Maia. Silva seems to not take a fight seriously when he knows he’s the better fighter. The Cote, Leites, and Maia fight were more than lackluster, it was an embarrassment for a Middleweight Champion. I don’t see Anderson Silva losing, but if he fools around in the cage like before I just hope Sonnen catches him and puts out. I’m a huge Anderson Silva fan, but his last fight made me lose a lot of respect for him.

My Picks:

Ben Saunders beats Dennis Hallman
Johny Hendricks beats Charlie Brenneman
Tim Boetsch beats Todd Brown
Phils Davis beats Rodney Wallace
Junoir Dos Santos beats Roy Nelson
Ricardo Almeida beats Matt Hughes
Clay Guida beats Rafael Dos Anjos
Thiago Silva beats Jon Fitch
Anderson Silva beats Chael Sonnen

UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko

Jon “Bones” Jones is riding on some serious hype. You can’t blame him as he has beat some top competition early at this stage of his career. At age 23 he is young and has plenty of opportunities waiting for him. But Vladimir Matyushenko is looking to steal the spotlight. Matyushenko is not some old veteran looking to get some cage time before he retires he looking to make a run at the title. The former IFL Heavyweight champ is as dangerous as any opponent Jones will face. But if Matyushenko wants to win he’ll need to take Jones down early and hold him down there and work for submissions and work some ground and pound. On the feet is where it can get dangerous for the Belarusian. Jones is dynamic and incredibly fast. Strikes from Jones can from almost in any direction. One thing Matyushenko will need to be worry about is Bone’s double underhooks lateral throw. Closing the distance on a  good striker is a good idea, except for on Jones. With his 6′ 4″ frame Jones utilizes his height advantage and leverage to get his opponent into the air and onto the floor. In the end, I see Matyushenko unable to get his opponent down to the floor and succumbing to Jone’s superior striking.

My Picks:

Tyson Griffin beats Takinori Gomi
Jake Ellenberger beats John Howard
Mark Munoz beats Yushin Okami
Jon Jones beats Vladimir Matyushenko

UFC 116

They should have named this event “Clash of the Titans” because that’s what it is. Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin will be entering the octagon tipping well pass the heavyweight limit. This is the epitome of a heavyweight match. Carwin is known for his knockout power and crushing all his opponents in one round, and Brock is just as powerful if not more, and is  more athletic and superior in wrestling. Lesnar has been sideline for about one year due to illness and many would say that ring rust will play a role in the outcome of the fight. But some people forget that Lensar had his illness for several years and didn’t know about it. He was never able to train 100%. Lesnar was beating people up and won the heavyweight title while suffering from diverticulitis.  Now that he’s all healed up and training at 100% will we see an even more powerful and faster Brock Lesnar?

Carwin’s 12 wins are impressive but he hasn’t shown any other abilities other than knocking guys out (maybe he doesn’t need to). We’ve seen what Lesnar can do and he gets better every time he enters the cage. I don’t see Carwin defending Brock’s takedown, and unless he’s powerful enough to knock people out from his back and I don’t see him getting Brock off of him. With Fedor’s recent loss this match up will show who is the true heavyweight champ in MMA.

My Picks:

Brock Lesnar beats Shane Carwin

Chris Leben beats Yoshihiro Akiyama

Chris Lytle beats Matt Brown

Krzysztof Soszynski beats Stephan Bonnar

George Stiropoulos beats Kurt Pellegrino

Gerald Harris beats Dave Branch

Forrest Petz beats Daniel Roberts

The King has fallen

June 26, 2010 will be marked as a moment in MMA to remember. Fabricio Werdum did the unthinkable and beat the Russian machine, Fedor Emelianenko. Going into the fight Fedor was unbeaten in 10 years and a living legend in MMA.

Fedor’s dominance in the sport led people to watch him fight not to see him win, but to see if his opponents had anything that could pose any kind of threat to the Russian. But in the sport of MMA everyone will eventually feel the sting of defeat. With this loss the mystique of the unbeatable warrior is gone forever, but it doesn’t take away that he is one of the best fighters in the world.  Fedor did make obvious mistakes that led to his loss, but Fabricio Werdum was the one that faced the sport’s best and slapped a wicked triangle to finish the fight and that, was no mistake. And with this win Werdum will be known as the first man to hand Fedor’s first legitimate loss.

MMA fans who believed Fedor’s title as the best Heavyweight fighter in the world was unjustified and will use this loss to prove their point. For the past few years Fedor has fought mediocre opponents, and those opponents weren’t worthy enough to make any fighter the best in the world. That, I agree, but beating them didn’t make him any less of one. It was in PrideFC where they had the best heavyweight fighters in the world Fedor proved undoubtedly that he was the #1. At that time he had beaten the two best fighters, Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera (twice) and Mirko Cro Cop. Any other heavyweight whether in PrideFC, UFC, or in any organization would just be cannon fodder for these two, but Fedor Emelianenko cemented himself as the best when he beat them convincingly. Unfortunately with the fall of PrideFC Fedor was left to fight in smaller organizations where competition was in short supply. A fight in the UFC never came to fruition (Fedor’s management mostly to blame).  It left many to wonder if he was still the best in the world since fighters like Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin, Cain Velasquez, and Junior Dos Santos, who are all in the UFC, are making headway to the top of heavyweight mountain.

So where does Fedor stand in the rankings? It’s very difficult to tell, but one thing is for sure that he is no longer #1. Some people will say he is, and that this recent loss is just a fluke. But I say, “you’re only as good as your last fight.” And his last fight was a loss and it’s hard to argue about being the best when you’ve just been defeated. The king has fallen and the only way to get back his throne is to quickly get back in the cage (or ring).

UFC 115

It’s been a while since I’ve posted my UFC event picks. With work and remodeling and moving into my new house I didn’t have any time to post. Now that I have internet at my new place the website is now back up.

Anyways here are my quick picks. Sorry no analysis this time.

My Picks:

Chuck Liddell  beats Rich Franklin
Mirko Filipovic beats Pat Barry
Paulo Thiago beats Kampmann
Ben Rothwell beats Gilbert Yvel
Carlos Condit beats Rory MacDonald

UFC 112 Review

With the exception of the main event UFC 112 was a great event with great fights. Mark Munoz displayed heart and weathered an early storm to come back and beat Kendall Grove. That’s what makes fighters fun and exciting to watch; to see them come back from the brink of defeat to win the fight. But the fight that was really exciting and shocked me was the BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar bout. I counted Edgar out before the fight began, and he proved me and many others wrong. Edgar came with the perfect game plan that took the Champion out of his element. Edgar’s quick hands and good lateral movement allowed him to score points on his strikes and evades Penn’s counters. BJ Penn was never on point with his striking, and by the end of the 3rd round you can see the fatigue on his face. One thing that I don’t understand is why didn’t Penn take the fight to the ground where he knows he has the advantage. Even his corner was telling him to take Edgar down. I think it comes down to conditioning, he just didn’t have it this time around. I’m not taking anything away from Frankie, but BJ Penn’s worst enemy is his endurance.

As a big Anderson Silva fan it’s difficult to respond to his performance against Demian Maia. Maybe Silva is jaded from being Champion for so long,  maybe he’s hurt and couldn’t display his destructive striking abilities, or maybe the fighter’s he’s facing aren’t challenging enough.  There really is no worthy challenger for him at 185 lbs. But as an MMA fan I like seeing exciting fights whether it has crazy knock outs, submissions, or a battle of attrition between two skilled fighters, but not when fighters showboat or hold back for some personal or emotional issue. I don’t know what Anderson Silva was really thinking during his fight, but he needs to keep his fighting strictly business and do what he does best and destroy his opponents.  If Silva keeps this up he’ll lose many fans.

UFC 112

The Middleweight and Lightweight kings are back in the octagon defending their titles. For the first time, UFC will be holding their first event in Abu Dhabi in an outdoor arena. Fighters will be fighting in the open environment, so let’s hope it doesn’t rain.

Anderson Silva vs Demian Maia

Anderson Silva was slated to face fellow Brazilian Vitor Belfort, but due to a shoulder injury Demian Maia has stepped up to take his place to fight for the title.  I think Maia makes a more dangerous opponent than Belfort. Maia’s BBJ is world-class and is second to none in MMA. Silva’s ground game is underrated and he’ll prove that this Saturday. Maia’s only advantage is taking the fight to the ground, but that’s easier said than done when the Champ is considered the best striker in all of MMA. It’s not to say that it’s an impossible task as other fighters in the past have managed to take Silva down such as Dan Henderson and Travis Lutter. In reality there is no perfect game plan against Anderson Silva. Maia will have to close the distance to even attempt a take down, and even then, that’s where the Champ is the most dangerous with this Thai clinch and knees. I see this fight ending in a boring decision with Maia evading the striking prowess of Silva or a devastating KO by the hands or knees of the Middleweight champ.

BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar

BJ Penn has truly focused on his career establishing himself as the best Lightweight fighter of all time. Penn has defended his title 3 times with ease. And on Saturday he will be facing a fighter with fast hands and great wrestling, Frankie Edgar. Edgar is one of the few fighters in MMA that mixes this quick crisp boxing with his wrestling very well.  But the same can be said about BJ Penn about his boxing and BJJ. The only thing that Edgar brings to the table on Saturday is his fast hands. As of late, Penn’s stand-up has been giving all his opponents trouble, and it’s where he wears down his foes and finishes them off on the ground. So fast hands won’t be enough to take the belt from the Prodigy. Edgar will need a game plan that forces Penn to pick up the pace in the fight and draw it out into the championship rounds. I haven’t been sold on his “improved cardio”. If Edgar can avoid the ground game and push the pace for the first few rounds he can capitalize on a very tired BJ Penn in rounds 4 and 5.  Unfortunately the only person with the skill-set that can implement that plan is currently holding the Welterweight title. I see this fight ending via TKO or submission with Penn licking his glove and the belt still around his waist.

My Picks:

Anderson Silva beats Demian Maia
BJ Penn beats Frankie Edgar
Renzo Gracie beats Matt Hughes
Terry Etim beats Rafael Dos Anjos
Mark Munoz beats Kendall Grove
Paul Taylor beats John Gunderson
Matt Veach beats Paul Kelly

UFC 110 Review

UFC 110 showed that those Aussies are huge MMA fans. The event broke overseas attendance records, and UFC is planning another show there next year. It just goes to show how popular MMA is wordwide. As good as the event was there were interesting fights that showed which fighters have improved and which ones need to go back to the drawing board.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Anthony Perosh

Cro Cop hasn’t been looking good as of late. His loss to Dos Santos made me think he’s at the end of his career. Last night Cro Cop was able to beat an ill-prepared Perosh, a last minute replacement for Ben Rothwell. This win showed small glimpse of his former self, but the win wasn’t as impressive as his fans would like. The Croatian seemed to have loss his speed and reflexes over time, and he has said it himself that he has loss the motivation to fight. That lack of motivation could stem from his ability to dominate his division like he did in Pride.

Cro Cop’s problem is that he needs to drastically change fight camps. He’s become too predictable and his game has remained stagnant. He should follow in the footsteps of his former Pride colleague, Wanderlei Silva, and drop down a weight class. It can put him in a position to physically dominate his opponents. He still has the tools to easily become a champion, but the only question is he willing to do what it takes to make it happen?

Wanderlei Silva vs Michael Bisping

Wanderlei looks to be getting back into the swing of things and the 185 lbs division is his calling. He physically looks great and beating Bisping was a great statement to the division that he’s a huge threat.  Maybe a fight with Marquardt or a rematch with Vitor Belfort will show where he truly stand in the rankings. Unfortunately for Bisping he’ll have to go back to the drawing board. Bisping loss because he wasn’t able to overwhelm Silva like he did with his previous opponents and reverted to a hit and run tactic that didn’t do much for him. Even with a loss to Wanderlei, Bisping still remains one of the top prospects in the division. One of few areas he needs to work on is his takedowns and clinch work. Spending some time with Greg Jackson or Extreme Couture’s camp would take his game to the next level.

Joe Stevenson vs George Sotiropoulos

I was surprised to see Sotiropoulos handle Stevenson’s ground game. He was able to utilize the rubber guard to minimize Stevenson’s ground and pound and work for sweeps. And when he had the top position he was able to pass to half guard or full mount. Having a solid stand up didn’t hurt either. Stevenson was never able to get a solid position to utilize his elbows or sink in his notorious guillotine. Sotiropoulos had an answer for everything Stevenson threw at him. Along with Keith Jardine and Nate Marquardt, Joe Stevenson is another one of Greg Jackson’s pupils to have loss recently. I’m sure GSP will be bucking the trend next month when he takes on Dan Hardy.