UFC 123

Quinton Jackson vs Lyoto Machida

Rampage Jackson and Lyoto Machida are two fighters who’s style are completely opposites and it should make for a very interesting fight. Both fighters are coming off losses yet they’re still a threat to take the title in their division and win for them will easily put them back into contention.

Rampage’s raw strength and power that can end the fight at any point. And Shogun recently proved that as elusive as Machida is known for he can still be knocked out. Machida’s counter attack style has stifled and frustrated many opponents and Rampage will be another victim of that tactic. Like with his previous fights Rampage is either dominant for the entire fight or he finds himself struggling round by round. Machida’s hit and run tactic will no doubt frustrate Rampage, and as it goes further into the rounds Rampage will only be more gun shy and prone to make mistakes.  It’ll be a competitive fight, but I see Machida getting the nod from the judges at the end of the night.

BJ Penn vs Matt Hughes

For these two, the score is tied with each fighter having a win over each other. This is a hard decision for me to choose who will win. Not because both fighters are equally experienced and they’ve had wins against each other, but that it’s difficult to know which “BJ Penn” will show up. Is it the relentless and merciless Hawaiian with World Class Brazilian Jujitsu that will step in the cage or will it be the shy island-boy whose unwilling to tap into his full potential? If it’s the former, then that BJ Penn is favored to win against almost any opponent. The latter? Not so much.  Matt Hughes has a long career of smashing his opponent with his wrestling and ground and pound, but in his last two fights he has show he’s much more diversified. I’m sure his KO win over Almeida was a surprise to all MMA fans who have followed him. The question is how much improved is Matt Hughes compared to their last fight? Penn was easily winning the first two rounds of their last fight only to get stopped in the third due to either a rib injury or bad cardio (pick one). We know that skill-wise BJ Penn is as well-rounded as an MMA fighter can get. If Penn can tap into that potential of his he can end the fight before his cardio should start to matter. I’ve been a fan of Matt Hughes for the longest time, and as much as I like to believe that his last two fights have showed that he has improved I don’t think it’s enough to stop the Prodigy.

My picks:

Lyoto Machida beats Quinton Jackson
BJ Penn beats Matt Hughes
Gerald Harris beats Maiquel Falcao
Phil Davis beats Tim Boetsch
Joe Lauzon beats George Sotiropoulos
Karo Parisyan beats Dennis Hallman
Edson Barboza beats Mike Lullo
Mark Munoz beats Aaron Simpson
Tyson Griffin beats Nik Lentz

UFC 121

Cain Velasquez has proven he is the #1 contender and has what it takes to be the champ right now. Brock Lesnar is physically powerful and fast which makes up for his lack of experience. What makes Lesnar so appealing is that he improves leaps and bounds every time he steps in the cage. So it would be difficult to study his fight style and develop an effective strategy.

Lesnar’s last fight showed that he can come back from adversity and still win and that’s what true champions are made of. But that fight also showed that he’s still needs to work on his defense. Lesnar’s stand-up is stiff and very telegraphic. It’s something that Cain and his coaches will be working to capitalize on. Cain Velasquez will be giving up about 30 lbs when he steps in the cage. This can be considered an advantage or disadvantage; it depends on the type of strategy he brings against Lesnar.

Velasquez’s quest to a shot for the title has been a long time coming. Being undefeated in the UFC and KOing one of the best HW in the world made it easy for the fans and UFC brass to give Velasquez the #1 contender spot. The way the styles match up it’s difficult to call this one. Lesnar will need to avoid a kickboxing match with Cain and take this fight to the ground and take control of top position. Lesnar is a mountain of a man and if he can put Cain on his back every second that goes by will suck the energy out of Mexican heavyweight. For Velasquez, he needs to keep the fight standing and put the pressure on the Champ. Lesnar has good cardio for a large heavyweight and Velasquez will need to push it to it’s limits. His best bet will be taking the fight deep into the later rounds or draw Lesnar in a boxing match where Cain where has the advantage and score points with the judges and maybe score a knockdown and hoprfully capitalize on it. As for Cain KOing Lesnar it will be very unlikely. In the end I see Lesnar getting the win. Lesnar is bigger and stronger and his superior wrestling will nullify Velasquez’s better cardio and better boxing.

My Picks:

Brock Lesnar beats Cain Velasquez
Martin Kampmann beats Jake Shields
Diego Sanchez beats Paulo Thiago
Gilbert Yvel beats Jon Madsen
Tom Lawlor beats Patrick Cote
Tito Ortiz beats Matt Hamill
Gabriel Gonzaga beats Brendan Schaub
Chris Camozzi beats Dong Yi Yang
Ryan Jensen beats Court McGee

UFC 119

Frank Mir is on a mission. He wants the Heavyweight title again and just as important, he wants to take it from Brock Lesnar. But his road to the title has been a rocky one where he had suffered a some setbacks. Losing to Brock changed Mir in a way that affected him physically and mentally. Since then Mir has never been this fit and he has never been so determined to claw his way back to the top. And tonight, the next person standing in his way is the stoic and always dangerous Mirko Cro Cop.

In PrideFC, Cro Cop amass a career on beating opponents by vicious knockouts. Watching Cro Cop was like watch Mike Tyson demolishing grown men down to cowering little girls. It was fun and exciting to watch. Towards the end of his PrideFC career his speed and aggression waned but not before he was able to capture the Open Weight Grand Prix title. Soon after PrideFC went under UFC acquired the Croatian Sensation. Cro Cop’s fight in the UFC has been less than stellar. But with two back to back wins in the UFC the Croatian looks more poised then ever. Is he finally comfortable in the Octagon? My answer, probably not. But he can always prove me wrong if he wins impressively against Mir.

Mir has one of the best ground game in the division, but he’s been improving his standup. Wins over Kongo and Big Nog showed that he can throw punches too. Cro Cop is a K1 striker and has fought the best kickboxers on the planet. But his BJJ is “meh” at best. It’s his face-planting sprawl that keeps his opponents from trying to take him down. To win this fight Mir will need to take the fight to the ground fast and work his submissions. He’ll need to close the distance and drag him down to the floor.

For Cro Cop to win he’ll need to pull the trigger and let his hands and legs loose. He’s been too gun-shy lately to build up any kind of effective offense. With his sprawl he can keep the fight standing as long as he wants. But he’ll need to utilize his kicks to slow down Mir. Cro Cop has excellent gound and pound and if he can wear Mir down he can win the fight there. Forcing Mir to repeatedly go for takedowns is one way to gas him out. Skill for skill Mir has a little more tools in his tool bag than Cro Cop. Mir always comes back stronger and better after a loss and we have yet to see the Cro Cop of the past and we’ll probably will never see it again, which is why Mir will win this fight because the Croatian’s lack of aggression and counter-fighting style won’t work against Mir.

My Picks:

Frank Mir beats Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic
Ryan Bader beats Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Chris Lytle beats Matt Serra
Evan Dunham beats Sean Sherk
Melvin Guillard beats Jeremy Stephens
Matt Mitrione beats Joey Beltran
Thiago Tavares beats Pat Audinwood
C.B. Dollaway beats Joe Doerksen

UfC 118

For this UFC I find myself more interest in the non main event fights. The fight I’m looking forward is the Florian vs Maynard bout. These two fighters have very different styles that will make for a very interesting fight. Florian is a tactician on his feet and on the ground. He is very cerebral and he takes the fight where he knows he has the advantage. Maynard is a strong and powerful wrestler that can wear out the most durable fighters. He gets better and better every time he steps in the cage. With a win over the current champ, Frankie Edgar, Marynard is guarantee a title shot if he manages to get pass Florian. In this fight Maynard will need more than his strength and power to win he will need to stifle Florian’s striking and take the fight to the ground and pound away with his top position, and with his strong wrestling background he has the tools to do it. It’s easier said than done. Kenny Florian has phenomenal striking and a slick ground game. If Florian can stay away from the clinch and avoid the takedown Maynard will be in trouble.

I always thought the argument about Boxing vs MMA is stupid, and it still is. These are two different sports and trying to compare them to each other makes no sense. But with James Toney fighting Randy Couture tonight hopefully people will see the difference. Both of these fighters are legends in their respective sports and when these two athletes compete against each other the fighter who fights outside their forte will undoubtedly be in a losing proposition. Randy Couture has 13 years of experience compared to the 7 months of Toney’s the chance of Toney winning this fight is infinitesimally small, but it’s that chance that people find intriguing.

Seeing Penn lose to Edgar in April shocked me. Not because Edgar was a huge underdog, it was the game plan he brought with him. Known for his amazing BJJ Penn never even tried to attempt to utilize such an important skill set that made him feared by so many fighters. That loss has woken the demon inside him and I hope we will see a BJ Penn that wrecked havoc in the lightweight division. As for Edgar his strategy worked for him last time and I don’t think he should change it, but he should expect Penn to take the fight to the ground. And if the fight does go to the ground I don’t see Edgar escaping from the tangles of BJ Penn. But another win against the Hawaiian will surely establish his last win as no fluke.

My Picks:

Randy Couture beats James Toney
BJ Penn beats Frankie Edgar
Kenny Florian beats Gray Maynard
Marcus Davis beats Nate Diaz
Joe Lauzon beats Gabe Reudiger
Mike Pierce beats Amilcar Alves
Dan Miller beats John Salter

UFC 117

This will be the first time UFC has held an event in Oakland and it has a stacked card, at least for me it is. Headlining the event will be Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva defending his belt against big mouthed trash-talking Republican Chael Sonnen.  A lot of hype is being thrown into this fight thanks to Sonnen’s commentary, but the truth is Sonnen hasn’t faced a fighter like Silva, but Silva has faced wrestlers and ground fighters and won with ease.  I’m not saying Sonnen has no chance of winning, he just needs to bring a strategy that is much different than what he’s brought against his past opponents.

When Anderson Silva fought Travis Lutter Silva was put on his back and got a slight beating only if it was for a slight moment. Against Dan Henderson in the first round, Silva was taken down and held there for the majority of the period. Both those guys have great ground game, but was unable to finish Silva. As for Sonnen, he needs to take the fight to the ground, but unlike Henderson and Lutter he needs to finish. He needs to stay busy inflicting damage and work his top position and prevent Silva from escaping. On the feet is where it gets tricky. Anderson Silva’s striking is above and beyond Sonnen’s and he’ll have to find a way to take the fight to the ground. It’s likely that Sonnen will use the cage and his clinch to work for a takedown or a catching a kick from Silva, and anyone who’s anyone knows that being in the clinch with Anderson Silva is a quick way to see stars and birdies.

But the big question is on Anderson Silva whether he’s coming into the cage like he did against Demian Maia. Silva seems to not take a fight seriously when he knows he’s the better fighter. The Cote, Leites, and Maia fight were more than lackluster, it was an embarrassment for a Middleweight Champion. I don’t see Anderson Silva losing, but if he fools around in the cage like before I just hope Sonnen catches him and puts out. I’m a huge Anderson Silva fan, but his last fight made me lose a lot of respect for him.

My Picks:

Ben Saunders beats Dennis Hallman
Johny Hendricks beats Charlie Brenneman
Tim Boetsch beats Todd Brown
Phils Davis beats Rodney Wallace
Junoir Dos Santos beats Roy Nelson
Ricardo Almeida beats Matt Hughes
Clay Guida beats Rafael Dos Anjos
Thiago Silva beats Jon Fitch
Anderson Silva beats Chael Sonnen

UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko

Jon “Bones” Jones is riding on some serious hype. You can’t blame him as he has beat some top competition early at this stage of his career. At age 23 he is young and has plenty of opportunities waiting for him. But Vladimir Matyushenko is looking to steal the spotlight. Matyushenko is not some old veteran looking to get some cage time before he retires he looking to make a run at the title. The former IFL Heavyweight champ is as dangerous as any opponent Jones will face. But if Matyushenko wants to win he’ll need to take Jones down early and hold him down there and work for submissions and work some ground and pound. On the feet is where it can get dangerous for the Belarusian. Jones is dynamic and incredibly fast. Strikes from Jones can from almost in any direction. One thing Matyushenko will need to be worry about is Bone’s double underhooks lateral throw. Closing the distance on a  good striker is a good idea, except for on Jones. With his 6′ 4″ frame Jones utilizes his height advantage and leverage to get his opponent into the air and onto the floor. In the end, I see Matyushenko unable to get his opponent down to the floor and succumbing to Jone’s superior striking.

My Picks:

Tyson Griffin beats Takinori Gomi
Jake Ellenberger beats John Howard
Mark Munoz beats Yushin Okami
Jon Jones beats Vladimir Matyushenko

UFC 116

They should have named this event “Clash of the Titans” because that’s what it is. Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin will be entering the octagon tipping well pass the heavyweight limit. This is the epitome of a heavyweight match. Carwin is known for his knockout power and crushing all his opponents in one round, and Brock is just as powerful if not more, and is  more athletic and superior in wrestling. Lesnar has been sideline for about one year due to illness and many would say that ring rust will play a role in the outcome of the fight. But some people forget that Lensar had his illness for several years and didn’t know about it. He was never able to train 100%. Lesnar was beating people up and won the heavyweight title while suffering from diverticulitis.  Now that he’s all healed up and training at 100% will we see an even more powerful and faster Brock Lesnar?

Carwin’s 12 wins are impressive but he hasn’t shown any other abilities other than knocking guys out (maybe he doesn’t need to). We’ve seen what Lesnar can do and he gets better every time he enters the cage. I don’t see Carwin defending Brock’s takedown, and unless he’s powerful enough to knock people out from his back and I don’t see him getting Brock off of him. With Fedor’s recent loss this match up will show who is the true heavyweight champ in MMA.

My Picks:

Brock Lesnar beats Shane Carwin

Chris Leben beats Yoshihiro Akiyama

Chris Lytle beats Matt Brown

Krzysztof Soszynski beats Stephan Bonnar

George Stiropoulos beats Kurt Pellegrino

Gerald Harris beats Dave Branch

Forrest Petz beats Daniel Roberts

The King has fallen

June 26, 2010 will be marked as a moment in MMA to remember. Fabricio Werdum did the unthinkable and beat the Russian machine, Fedor Emelianenko. Going into the fight Fedor was unbeaten in 10 years and a living legend in MMA.

Fedor’s dominance in the sport led people to watch him fight not to see him win, but to see if his opponents had anything that could pose any kind of threat to the Russian. But in the sport of MMA everyone will eventually feel the sting of defeat. With this loss the mystique of the unbeatable warrior is gone forever, but it doesn’t take away that he is one of the best fighters in the world.  Fedor did make obvious mistakes that led to his loss, but Fabricio Werdum was the one that faced the sport’s best and slapped a wicked triangle to finish the fight and that, was no mistake. And with this win Werdum will be known as the first man to hand Fedor’s first legitimate loss.

MMA fans who believed Fedor’s title as the best Heavyweight fighter in the world was unjustified and will use this loss to prove their point. For the past few years Fedor has fought mediocre opponents, and those opponents weren’t worthy enough to make any fighter the best in the world. That, I agree, but beating them didn’t make him any less of one. It was in PrideFC where they had the best heavyweight fighters in the world Fedor proved undoubtedly that he was the #1. At that time he had beaten the two best fighters, Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera (twice) and Mirko Cro Cop. Any other heavyweight whether in PrideFC, UFC, or in any organization would just be cannon fodder for these two, but Fedor Emelianenko cemented himself as the best when he beat them convincingly. Unfortunately with the fall of PrideFC Fedor was left to fight in smaller organizations where competition was in short supply. A fight in the UFC never came to fruition (Fedor’s management mostly to blame).  It left many to wonder if he was still the best in the world since fighters like Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin, Cain Velasquez, and Junior Dos Santos, who are all in the UFC, are making headway to the top of heavyweight mountain.

So where does Fedor stand in the rankings? It’s very difficult to tell, but one thing is for sure that he is no longer #1. Some people will say he is, and that this recent loss is just a fluke. But I say, “you’re only as good as your last fight.” And his last fight was a loss and it’s hard to argue about being the best when you’ve just been defeated. The king has fallen and the only way to get back his throne is to quickly get back in the cage (or ring).

UFC 115

It’s been a while since I’ve posted my UFC event picks. With work and remodeling and moving into my new house I didn’t have any time to post. Now that I have internet at my new place the website is now back up.

Anyways here are my quick picks. Sorry no analysis this time.

My Picks:

Chuck Liddell  beats Rich Franklin
Mirko Filipovic beats Pat Barry
Paulo Thiago beats Kampmann
Ben Rothwell beats Gilbert Yvel
Carlos Condit beats Rory MacDonald

UFC 112 Review

With the exception of the main event UFC 112 was a great event with great fights. Mark Munoz displayed heart and weathered an early storm to come back and beat Kendall Grove. That’s what makes fighters fun and exciting to watch; to see them come back from the brink of defeat to win the fight. But the fight that was really exciting and shocked me was the BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar bout. I counted Edgar out before the fight began, and he proved me and many others wrong. Edgar came with the perfect game plan that took the Champion out of his element. Edgar’s quick hands and good lateral movement allowed him to score points on his strikes and evades Penn’s counters. BJ Penn was never on point with his striking, and by the end of the 3rd round you can see the fatigue on his face. One thing that I don’t understand is why didn’t Penn take the fight to the ground where he knows he has the advantage. Even his corner was telling him to take Edgar down. I think it comes down to conditioning, he just didn’t have it this time around. I’m not taking anything away from Frankie, but BJ Penn’s worst enemy is his endurance.

As a big Anderson Silva fan it’s difficult to respond to his performance against Demian Maia. Maybe Silva is jaded from being Champion for so long,  maybe he’s hurt and couldn’t display his destructive striking abilities, or maybe the fighter’s he’s facing aren’t challenging enough.  There really is no worthy challenger for him at 185 lbs. But as an MMA fan I like seeing exciting fights whether it has crazy knock outs, submissions, or a battle of attrition between two skilled fighters, but not when fighters showboat or hold back for some personal or emotional issue. I don’t know what Anderson Silva was really thinking during his fight, but he needs to keep his fighting strictly business and do what he does best and destroy his opponents.  If Silva keeps this up he’ll lose many fans.